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steve-myers
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Joined: 30 Nov 2013
Posts: 917
Location: The Universe
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Terry Heinze
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Joined: 14 Jul 2008
Posts: 1248
Location: Richfield, MN, USA
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| Very good article. Worth the read. |
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Rohit Umarjikar
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Joined: 21 Sep 2010
Posts: 3076
Location: NYC,USA
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| Very true and reasonable facts. Thanks. |
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RahulG31
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Joined: 20 Dec 2014
Posts: 446
Location: USA
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I would hate to disagree. I have been hearing that Mainframe is dying since I started working (it's been 10 year now) and I have also kept hearing that it is Not and it can never die.
The article says:
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| 1.15 million CICS transactions every second of every day -- the equivalent of all Google searches, YouTube views, Facebook likes, and Twitter tweets combined. |
This fact seems to be misleading. If you look back 10 years and try to compare the same data, then you'll know why Mainframe is becoming a secondary choice (compared to other technologies).
It is also worth pointing out who the author of the article is.
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| "Christopher O’Malley is CEO of Compuware. " |
I am not surprised somebody who makes tools for Mainframes is trying to promote Mainframes.
We should also not forget the pay a mainframe programmer gets in comparison to other technologies.
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Rohit Umarjikar
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Joined: 21 Sep 2010
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Location: NYC,USA
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/*My View(May not right , Don't get Wrong/*
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| I have been hearing that Mainframe is dying since I started working (it's been 10 year now) |
I don't know where or who told you but it was booming since then till 2011 and then demand slowed down and constant now ( I guess).
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| This fact seems to be misleading. If you look back 10 years and try to compare the same data, then you'll know why Mainframe is becoming a secondary choice (compared to other technologies). |
This is not the assumption of Compuware but IBM say's so. Mainframe at 50: Why the mainframe keeps on going
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| I am not surprised somebody who makes tools for Mainframes is trying to promote Mainframes. |
But He put on facts.
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| We should also not forget the pay a mainframe programmer gets in comparison to other technologies. |
This is a different story because in current world you will have to be versatile in most of the technologies to get more paid. One of my friend is a ETL developer and tester but there are no jobs with higher salary than what he draws today, another case of a Hadoop Developer , Its just a bubble but in real no much jobs today, so unless anyone learns something of a current demand and keep updated time to time , He or She wouldn't be getting paid well. These days' everything is outsourced to offshore ,no matter what technology and their outsourcing rates are almost constant ( mostly fixed contract)in against to, older days (15 years back) was no much offshoring. so the pay in USA was much better which I think is the REASON for less pay and NOT the type of technology. |
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Terry Heinze
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Joined: 14 Jul 2008
Posts: 1248
Location: Richfield, MN, USA
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| I am not surprised somebody who makes tools for Mainframes is trying to promote Mainframes. |
The same thing crossed my mind.  |
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RahulG31
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Joined: 20 Dec 2014
Posts: 446
Location: USA
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It is funny how somebody shows/tells/represents the facts.
See this question in the fact/pdf Rohit shared:
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| How many more years do you think your organization will continue to rely on mainframe applications? |
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Fewer than 5 Years or don't know - 13%
5 - 10 Years - 55%
10 - 20 Years - 30%
More than 20 Years - 2% |
And then they go on to say that
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| 87% of enterprises that currently use mainframes expect to continue doing so for more than five years. |
Using the same facts one could also say that:
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| 68% of enterprises that currently use mainframes expect to get rid of it in next 10 Years |
OR (to get someone more worried)
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| 98% of enterprises that currently use mainframes expect to get rid of it in next 20 Years |
It's the way somebody wants you to look at the facts.
I don't think it's worth mentioning that the facts are printed by a particular organization (I am not blaming them but may be they are only printing what interests them and that's fair). |
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Rohit Umarjikar
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Joined: 21 Sep 2010
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Location: NYC,USA
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| Do you still believe IBM will not offer better deals to their all vendors when they see people are shutting down the Mainframes and switching to something else based on above stats in coming future (History shows they did cost reduction to a great extend)? They will and they will try every efforts to keep their customers connected , So Why would any Organization jeopardize their IT Software/ Business for few $$ by switching to other technology? 20+ Years is a big time and it is wrong to forecast and comment that it will not long last but it is more worth to see today's stats and appreciate the survival even after 50+ Years. Coming to Compuware, Yes it could be a Marketing strategy how they trick the facts (Who don't these day's) as it is their core business after all so I am not surprised. |
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RahulG31
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Joined: 20 Dec 2014
Posts: 446
Location: USA
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These are Not my facts, neither my forecasts. I am just reading what you posted.
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| They will and they will try every efforts to keep their customers connected |
That reminds me of 'Nokia' - *connecting people*
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Rohit Umarjikar
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Joined: 21 Sep 2010
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Location: NYC,USA
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What I posted is what I explained also, it is just that you don't still get my point of view of of why the pay is less and why would Mainframes will still survive in future.
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That reminds me of 'Nokia' - *connecting people*
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 but they failed, I am sure IBM won't. |
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Robert Sample
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Joined: 06 Jun 2008
Posts: 8700
Location: Dubuque, Iowa, USA
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My opinion is that whether you think mainframes are going away or staying around forever, you will be able to find statistics to support that view. Companies that try to replace their mainframe have a fairly high failure rate for such projects, but certainly some do succeed (although the replacement project usually runs years longer than expected). Larger companies have a more difficult time replacing their platform -- when you're running several million CICS transactions a day hitting a variety of databases, interfacing to 150 external systems (not all of them controlled by your company), and have to deal with the various laws about data and privacy these days, it becomes a very massive project to change platforms. Smaller companies have an easier migration, but the average platform migration project still runs several years.
Mainframe doom predictions are NOT new --the minicomputers from the 1970's were predicted to kill of the mainframe, as were the microcomputers of the 1980's ... and so on through cloud computing in the 2010's. Something may eventually be able to actually kill off mainframes, but there's no indication that it is here today. |
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RahulG31
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Joined: 20 Dec 2014
Posts: 446
Location: USA
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I was only commenting on the article.
It's the article which is forecasting the future of Mainframe by saying why someone needs to learn Mainframe programming. And, in their bid to do so, they are throwing up some facts which, in my view, are Incomplete/Misleading.
For example, they don't tell the percentage of organizations planning to work on Java, C#, php, .. and other technologies in near future. We don't know if most of the organizations want to grow in some other technologies and then those are what we should learn. There is nothing to compare for 'why Mainframe and Not Java (for example)'. That is why I say that the facts are incomplete. I posted earlier on why it's misleading. And also why it interests someone to mislead.
I am not saying Mainframe will be here or Not but that is the question that pops up in everyone's minds when such talks happen (even the article mentions why mainframe is not going away but that's not what I am against).
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boyti ko
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Joined: 03 Nov 2014
Posts: 78
Location: Malaysia
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Hi,
Just want to share that here in my country, I've known 3 banks already moving out of mainframe. But 1 of them failed in the middle of doing it, wasting a lot of money in the process.
I have read this link last time and saw the good sides of mainframe. So I'm still wondering why do they want to move out of mainframe? Some told me that it's too expensive to maintain their applications in mainframe. But is it worth the change? |
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